Thu. Jun 30th, 2022

First, on the supply side, the steel production capacity “look back” and 2021 crude steel production reduction work will be the focus of content.

Steel production capacity “look back” will focus on checking the relevant areas since 2016 steel production capacity work carried out and the implementation of rectification. First, the solution of excess steel production capacity, the fight against “ground steel” smelting equipment shutdown and withdrawal; second, the construction of steel smelting projects, production and operation; third, the implementation of rectification of the problems found in the previous inspection; fourth, the verification and rectification of the reported clues; fifth, the situation of the leading group of work to resolve excess steel production capacity; sixth, the implementation of 2021 crude steel production reduction work focus. Crude steel production reduction work focus. 2021 crude steel production reduction work will be based on consolidating and improving the results of steel production capacity, adhere to the market, the principle of the rule of law, focusing on reducing the poor environmental performance, high energy consumption, energy consumption of crude steel production of enterprises. For the relatively backward level of technology and equipment, we should avoid a “one-size-fits-all” approach. Ensure that national crude steel production decreases year-on-year in 2021.

Secondly, on the demand side, in addition to seasonal changes, the preparations for the Winter Olympics also need to be given some attention, and the impact of relevant policies at home and abroad on the steel industry should not be underestimated. On the domestic side, real estate in adhering to the “three stable” goals (stable land prices, stable housing prices, stable expectations) under the policy guidance of stable development, infrastructure in special bonds to speed up the issuance and new performance management approach to constrain growth space is limited, foreign demand and construction manufacturing industry is facing downward pressure on demand, the automotive industry only chip problem is eased, demand will be greater growth. Externally, the U.S. fiscal subsidies and monetary policy normalization.

Finally, in terms of raw materials, the second half of the year should focus on the shipment of overseas mines and new coke production capacity.

Outlook for the steel industry under the “double carbon” target

“By the end of the century, we should limit global average temperature rise to within 2 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels (20% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 and net-zero emissions in 2075); and work to limit temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius (45% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 and net-zero emissions in 2050). (net zero emissions by 2050)” is the long-term goal The Paris Agreement was adopted at the Paris Climate Change Conference on December 12, 2015, and signed in New York on April 22, 2016.

So far, 127 countries around the world have committed to become carbon neutral, with 127 of them accounting for 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions and more than 40% of the total economy. The EU, the UK, Japan, South Korea and other regions have proposed a “Green New Deal”, Biden has prioritized climate change in internal and external policies, and more developing countries have clarified their low-carbon transition targets.

Carbon neutrality will have a profound impact on the global steel industry

Carbon neutrality will have the following five impacts on the global steel industry.

In October 2020, the IEA (International Energy Agency) released the World Energy Technology Outlook 2020 – Steel Technology Roadmap, in which the baseline scenario projection (STEPS) expects global steel demand to grow by 40%, or about 700 million tons, from 1.85 billion tons in 2019 to 2.5 billion tons, in line with existing policies announced by countries in 2050. 2019 1.85 billion tons to 2.55 billion tons. However, under the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature control targets, carbon emissions from the steel industry would have to be reduced by at least 50%, and global steel demand would grow by only 10%, or about 180 million tons, to 2.03 billion tons by 2050. Therefore

Second, total carbon emissions from the steel sector will be 55% lower in 2050 than in 2019, with a 60% reduction in emissions intensity. According to the International Energy Agency (STEPS), global carbon emissions from the steel sector will increase from 2.6 billion tons in 2019 to 2.7 billion tons in 2050, an increase of about 7% and a reduction in carbon intensity of only 21%, even taking into account the increased share of electric furnace steel due to the growth of scrap accumulation. However, to achieve the Paris Agreement’s 2.0°C temperature control target, total direct carbon emissions